If you’ve been considering a Disney World trip for 2025, heads up: You may want to keep your calendar open for late this year.

According to a report in the Orlando Business Journal, several Central Florida counties are expecting visitor levels and tourism to “level off” as the year goes on.

According to the outlet, “Osceola County’s updated tourist development tax monthly projection collection numbers for April to September for fiscal-year 2025 are expected to be down by 5.06%-6.21% over the year. For example, collections for the tax on hotels and short-term rentals for the county in March reached $8.8 million, down 5% compared to the year-ago period.”

Even given these projected numbers, Osceola’s total hotel tax collections are expected to be down only slightly for the year, projected to be $81.24 million for fiscal 2025 compared to $81.35 million in 2024. This is attributable to 2025 starting comparatively strong.

In addition, Experience Kissimmee’s advance vacation bookings for June-September show a 15% increase for vacation homes, while hotel demand is down by about 1% from last year, and in Orlando, advance hotel bookings from May-July are pacing 1% behind the same time period last year, while short-term rentals in the same timeframe are ahead 15% year-over-year.

According to travel forecast firm Tourism Economics, these numbers are symptoms of larger issues, including inflation, political strife, and travel restrictions that have several impacted international travel, leading the firm to downgrade growth projections for their 2025-26 U.S. hotel forecast at the start of June.

In a news release, Aran Ryan — the director of industry studies at Tourism Economics — said, “We’re looking ahead to a second half of the year with consumers facing higher prices and a weaker labor market, businesses tapping the brakes on investment and soft international visitor volumes. While recession risks have eased, the economy — and the travel sector — will walk on a tight rope through this period.”

Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings seconded the thought that political issues could lead to negative effects on tourism, saying, “We believe, however, that our tourism numbers will continue to be strong, based on hotel booking numbers. As we move closer to next year, we will have to see if those numbers continue to remain strong.”

If these numbers and projections prove accurate, there maybe be more hotel room availability than normal at Disney World later this year and into 2026, despite the company saying “bookings are up in the summer right now, and we’re certainly feeling positive. The outlook is good in that regard” during an an earnings call earlier this year. This may be why the company has offered unprecedented (in post-COVID times) discounts over the last several months.

If you’re considering a Disney World trip, the second half of 2025 may be a good time to jump on it, as projections indicate that political and economic issues could lead to a slowdown at the resort and the surrounding area. Stay tuned to DFB for more on the travel industry.

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The post Here’s When Disney World Could Be Empty in 2025 first appeared on the disney food blog.